The Devil is in the Details: On the Robust Determinants of Development Aid in G5 Sahel Countries

This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on determinants of development aid at regional level. is done by adopting a panel Bayesian averaging approach applied data G5 Sahel countries, spanning period 1980–2018. Our results suggest that among regressors considered, those reflecting terrorist attacks, trade stakes including military expenditure, socioeconomic prospects and institutional conditions tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. Then, explores relationship between these foreign employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), continuously updated (CUP-FM), dynamic (DOLS) long-run estimators Dumitrescu Hurlin’s (2012) causality test. Results highlight three concerns may justify flows toward countries: (a) peace security purposes, (b) economic interest donors (c) recipient needs. The recommends countries should strengthen international cooperation for in compliance with goal 16 2030 Agenda sustainable United Nations (UN) 13 African Union’s (AU) 2063.